You picked a major. Maybe you even picked a career. You know roughly what you'll earn starting out. But here's the question most people never actually sit down and answer before signing their loan paperwork:
Can you actually afford to pay it back?
Not "technically yes over 30 years" — but actually afford it. As in, pay your loans AND cover rent AND eat AND not move back in with your parents the month after graduation.
Let's run the real numbers across three scenarios most students actually face.
The Three Scenarios
The State School Graduate — $40,000 in loans
This is the "responsible" choice. In-state tuition, maybe some scholarships, maybe a part-time job. You graduate with around $40,000 in federal student loans — close to the national average.
Your standard 10-year repayment plan puts your monthly payment at around $414/month — about $4,970/year.
Now let's say your first job pays $55,000. That's realistic for many fields — teachers, social workers, marketing coordinators, HR assistants, many healthcare roles.
After federal and state taxes in a mid-cost city like Columbus or Nashville, you're taking home roughly $42,000/year — about $3,500/month.
The Mid-Tier Private University Graduate — $80,000 in loans
This is where things start getting uncomfortable. Maybe you went to a well-regarded private school. Maybe you switched majors and took an extra semester. $80,000 in loans is increasingly common.
Standard 10-year repayment: $827/month — about $9,924/year.
Same $55,000 starting salary, same $42,000 take-home.
That's $293–$368/week to cover groceries, gas, utilities, phone, health insurance copays, and anything unexpected.
The Private University Graduate — $120,000 in loans
This is the scenario that keeps parents up at night — and should. $120,000 is what many students borrow for four years at a private university without significant scholarships.
Standard 10-year repayment: $1,240/month — about $14,880/year.
So What Salary Do You Actually Need?
Here's the rule of thumb most financial advisors use: your total student loan debt shouldn't exceed your expected first-year salary.
The Variable Nobody Talks About: Where You Live
The same salary means completely different things in different cities. $55,000 in Memphis is a comfortable life. $55,000 in San Francisco is a financial emergency.
A nurse earning $70,000 in Houston takes home significantly more purchasing power than a nurse earning $85,000 in Seattle once you factor in rent, state income tax, and cost of living. The headline salary number is almost meaningless without the city attached to it.
The Careers Where the Numbers Work — and Where They Don't
Some careers absorb almost any reasonable debt load because starting salaries are strong. Software engineers in major markets often start at $90,000–$110,000. Registered nurses can start at $65,000–$80,000 depending on location. Financial analysts at large firms often start at $70,000+.
Other careers are financially brutal at entry level regardless of how meaningful the work is. Teachers in many states start at $38,000–$45,000. Social workers often start at $35,000–$42,000. Journalism, fine arts, and many liberal arts paths routinely produce starting salaries in the $35,000–$50,000 range.
None of that means those careers aren't worth pursuing. It means the debt you carry into them matters enormously.